CS2 Case ROI & Return Statistics
A reproducible price snapshot — with the uncertainty left in, not hidden.
Last updated: by CS2Gambling.com
Dated snapshot, not live prices or a profit recommendation
Captured 2026-11-12 11:03:17 UTC from cached CSFloat listing asks via OpenSkin. Source dates can be months older. Only 3 cases meet both complete-price and two-hour freshness checks. Missing quotes make RTP a lower bound and expected loss an upper bound; provisional rows cannot establish the best case.
| Case | Opening | EV / known value | RTP | Expected loss | Priced odds | Oldest quote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snakebite CaseComplete & recent | $2.75 | $1.12 | 40.66% | $1.63 | 100.0000% | 2026-11-12 |
| Recoil CaseComplete & recent | $2.68 | $0.80 | 30.01% | $1.88 | 100.0000% | 2026-11-12 |
| Revolution CaseComplete & recent | $2.63 | $0.70 | 26.67% | $1.93 | 100.0000% | 2026-11-12 |
| Chroma 3 CaseProvisional · incomplete | $5.19 | $4.27 | ≥ 82.20% | ≤ $0.92 | 99.9950% | 2026-08-14 |
| Chroma 2 CaseProvisional · incomplete | $5.70 | $4.57 | ≥ 80.25% | ≤ $1.13 | 99.9995% | 2026-08-14 |
| Chroma CaseProvisional · incomplete | $6.47 | $4.93 | ≥ 76.23% | ≤ $1.54 | 99.8396% | 2026-08-14 |
| Spectrum 2 CaseProvisional · incomplete | $4.95 | $3.72 | ≥ 75.08% | ≤ $1.23 | 99.3710% | 2026-07-15 |
| Spectrum CaseProvisional · incomplete | $5.37 | $3.94 | ≥ 73.45% | ≤ $1.43 | 99.9989% | 2026-07-15 |
| Gamma CaseProvisional · incomplete | $4.91 | $3.60 | ≥ 73.26% | ≤ $1.31 | 99.9995% | 2026-08-16 |
| Gamma 2 CaseProvisional · incomplete | $4.90 | $3.49 | ≥ 71.25% | ≤ $1.41 | 99.9995% | 2026-08-16 |
| Prisma CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.31 | $2.33 | ≥ 70.41% | ≤ $0.98 | 99.9994% | 2026-07-05 |
| Prisma 2 CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.31 | $2.25 | ≥ 68.01% | ≤ $1.06 | 99.9994% | 2026-07-05 |
| eSports 2013 Winter CaseProvisional · incomplete | $12.84 | $7.77 | ≥ 60.48% | ≤ $5.07 | 99.6130% | 2026-07-31 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3Provisional · incomplete | $13.58 | $7.88 | ≥ 58.06% | ≤ $5.70 | 98.9656% | 2026-07-31 |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseProvisional · incomplete | $6.28 | $3.55 | ≥ 56.45% | ≤ $2.73 | 99.8943% | 2026-07-31 |
| Operation Wildfire CaseProvisional · incomplete | $4.71 | $2.60 | ≥ 55.22% | ≤ $2.11 | 98.3176% | 2026-10-25 |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2Provisional · incomplete | $19.33 | $10.62 | ≥ 54.95% | ≤ $8.71 | 99.9993% | 2026-07-31 |
| Glove CaseProvisional · incomplete | $10.08 | $5.52 | ≥ 54.80% | ≤ $4.56 | 99.9999% | 2026-11-12 |
| Operation Riptide CaseProvisional · incomplete | $7.96 | $4.21 | ≥ 52.85% | ≤ $3.75 | 99.2920% | 2026-07-10 |
| Dreams & Nightmares CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.26 | $1.72 | ≥ 52.76% | ≤ $1.54 | 99.9999% | 2026-07-10 |
| Fever CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.01 | $1.56 | ≥ 51.71% | ≤ $1.45 | 99.9999% | 2026-07-26 |
| Operation Hydra CaseProvisional · incomplete | $25.49 | $13.04 | ≥ 51.17% | ≤ $12.45 | 99.9592% | 2026-11-10 |
| eSports 2014 Summer CaseProvisional · incomplete | $12.27 | $6.13 | ≥ 49.92% | ≤ $6.14 | 99.9986% | 2026-07-31 |
| Shattered Web CaseProvisional · incomplete | $5.86 | $2.90 | ≥ 49.49% | ≤ $2.96 | 96.0729% | 2026-10-07 |
| Horizon CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.66 | $1.81 | ≥ 49.39% | ≤ $1.85 | 99.8853% | 2026-10-28 |
| Shadow CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.83 | $1.87 | ≥ 48.84% | ≤ $1.96 | 99.9994% | 2026-11-04 |
| Revolver CaseProvisional · incomplete | $4.67 | $2.28 | ≥ 48.76% | ≤ $2.39 | 99.9993% | 2026-07-31 |
| Operation Broken Fang CaseProvisional · incomplete | $6.81 | $3.30 | ≥ 48.40% | ≤ $3.51 | 99.9001% | 2026-11-12 |
| Falchion CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.69 | $1.73 | ≥ 46.77% | ≤ $1.96 | 99.9996% | 2026-11-07 |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseProvisional · incomplete | $5.51 | $2.56 | ≥ 46.46% | ≤ $2.95 | 99.9993% | 2026-07-31 |
| Huntsman Weapon CaseProvisional · incomplete | $9.18 | $4.25 | ≥ 46.28% | ≤ $4.93 | 99.6161% | 2026-08-05 |
| Operation Breakout Weapon CaseProvisional · incomplete | $9.02 | $4.16 | ≥ 46.08% | ≤ $4.86 | 99.7761% | 2026-11-03 |
| Winter Offensive Weapon CaseProvisional · incomplete | $10.98 | $4.80 | ≥ 43.75% | ≤ $6.18 | 99.9993% | 2026-07-31 |
| Gallery CaseProvisional · incomplete | $2.97 | $1.25 | ≥ 42.07% | ≤ $1.72 | 99.9962% | 2026-11-12 |
| CS20 CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.11 | $1.29 | ≥ 41.51% | ≤ $1.82 | 99.6814% | 2026-07-13 |
| Danger Zone CaseProvisional · incomplete | $3.31 | $1.36 | ≥ 41.24% | ≤ $1.95 | 99.9995% | 2026-10-28 |
| CS:GO Weapon CaseProvisional · incomplete | $92.49 | $28.75 | ≥ 31.08% | ≤ $63.74 | 99.9913% | 2026-07-31 |
| Operation Bravo CaseProvisional · incomplete | $53.83 | $16.40 | ≥ 30.47% | ≤ $37.43 | 98.4547% | 2026-07-31 |
| Clutch CaseProvisional · incomplete | $2.86 | $0.86 | ≥ 30.16% | ≤ $2.00 | 99.8858% | 2026-11-12 |
| Fracture CaseProvisional · incomplete | $2.80 | $0.79 | ≥ 28.09% | ≤ $2.01 | 99.9999% | 2026-10-07 |
| eSports 2013 CaseProvisional · incomplete | $42.93 | $11.30 | ≥ 26.33% | ≤ $31.63 | 97.7247% | 2026-07-31 |
| Kilowatt CaseProvisional · incomplete | $2.57 | $0.66 | ≥ 25.59% | ≤ $1.91 | 100.0000% | 2026-11-12 |
What this report can — and cannot — tell you
This November 12 capture measures the data available in our cache, not November transactions. A fresh retrieval timestamp does not make an old source quote current. Only Snakebite, Recoil and Revolution met both checks at capture. Their modeled returns were 40.66%, 30.01% and 26.67%; the three-case median was 30.01%. This subset cannot establish the best or worst case across all 42.
EV is the sum of each modeled outcome probability multiplied by its available USD quote. Return = EV ÷ (case + key) × 100. Net ROI = return − 100%. A 60% return is a −40% net ROI, not a 60% profit. Fees, spreads, taxes and liquidity are excluded, so a listing ask is not guaranteed sale proceeds.
A small gap in priced probability can conceal an expensive knife or phase. Even 99.99% coverage does not establish a complete EV. For incomplete rows, known EV and return are lower bounds; cost minus known EV is an upper bound on modeled expected loss. Do not rank uncertain bounds as if they were complete results.
Buying versus opening
Buying a specific skin gives you that item at the agreed price. Opening pays for a random outcome; gold does not necessarily mean the knife or finish you wanted. If you already own the case, paying only the key is a marginal cash cost, but opening also gives up the case’s resale value. This report includes both case and key for a fair comparison.
Methodology & sources
Case metadata: ByMykel’s community catalog. Marketplace cache: OpenSkin’s separate CSFloat, Steam and Skinport quotes, with CSFloat listing asks used for the published report. Skin and case prices remain separate; absent values are never replaced with a proxy or zero. The scheduled service retrieves data, but market availability determines source freshness.
The report is fixed to its capture date. The free calculator reads the existing cache and displays its own dates. We have no historical series to substantiate monthly price changes, revenue totals or market-wide trends. No test purchases or actual gambling sessions were conducted for this research.